The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. The FCS upset over a Power Four opponent, once an annual occurrence, now seems like a distant memory. Since 2023, Power conference teams have dominated FCS competition, winning 125 straight games. But what does this mean for the future of college football? Is the FCS on the brink of extinction? Or is there still hope for an upset? Let's take a closer look at six potential shockers in 2026 that could end the drought.
The Power of the Transfer Portal
The transfer portal and NIL have significantly impacted the talent drain from FCS to FBS. FBS power conference teams are now 223-2 (.991) against FCS opponents since 2022, a stark contrast to the previous 16 seasons. This shift highlights the increasing difficulty for FCS programs to retain their best players. The talent gap is widening, and it's becoming harder for FCS teams to compete.
The Rise of the Group of Six
Even the Group of Six teams, often considered the next tier down from the Power Four, are struggling against FCS competition. They have gone 238-20 (.922) over the past four seasons, a rate that is down from the previous 16 years. This trend further emphasizes the dominance of FBS teams and the challenges faced by FCS programs.
Six Potential Upsets in 2026
South Dakota State at Northwestern: South Dakota State, led by quarterback Chase Mason, has a chance to upset Northwestern, who has been on the wrong end of three FCS upsets since 2006. The Jackrabbits' recent success and Mason's return make this a compelling matchup.
Youngstown State at Kentucky: Youngstown State, with reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, presents a formidable challenge for Kentucky. The Penguins' talent and Brungard's leadership could make this a close game.
North Dakota at Nebraska: North Dakota, with dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker, nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State in 2025. They have the pieces to make it a problem for Nebraska.
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State: Mississippi State's schedule and team dynamics could lead to a surprising loss to Tennessee Tech. The Bulldogs might be checked out by November, while the Golden Eagles, with a strong transfer class, could make it a tough game.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt, without quarterback Diego Pavia, faces a step back in 2026. Austin Peay, with quarterback Chris Parson, a Walter Payton Award finalist, has the talent to make it hurt if the Commodores take a step back.
Monmouth at West Virginia: Monmouth, a team that has given Group of Six teams fits in recent years, faces a challenging task against West Virginia. The Mountaineers' turnover and roster changes could create uncertainty, providing an opportunity for the Hawks.
The Future of FCS Upsets
Breaking the streak of Power Four wins over FCS teams will require a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS side. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups in 2026, the chances of an upset are slim, but not impossible. The transfer portal and NIL continue to widen the talent gap, making upsets even rarer. However, the potential for surprise remains, and these six games could be the perfect stage for an upset.
In conclusion, the FCS may be on the decline, but the possibility of an upset in 2026 still exists. These six games showcase the talent and potential for surprise in college football. As the sport continues to evolve, the question remains: Can the FCS still pull off an upset? Only time will tell.
